The global personal computer (PC) market is poised for a substantial recovery, with a projected 8% growth in 2024, marking a significant upturn after seven consecutive quarters of decline, according to a report from Canalys Press. Nearly one in five PCs shipped during this period is expected to be equipped with artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities.

Canalys anticipates a total of 267 million PC units in full-year shipments for 2024, attributing this growth to the Windows refresh cycle and the rise of AI-capable and Arm-based devices. Analysts believe that the impact of AI on the PC industry will be profound, with major players across original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), processor manufacturers, and operating system providers focusing on delivering new AI-capable models.

"The total shipment share of AI-capable PCs is expected to be about 19% in 2024," revealed Canalys analyst Ben Yeh. He emphasized that this shift will be driven by initiatives from industry leaders and will particularly boost demand in the commercial sector.

Canalys predicts that AI PC shipments in 2024 will include all M-series Mac products and emerging offerings in the Windows ecosystem. The analysts foresee a rapid development and adoption of AI PCs as compelling use cases continue to emerge, making AI functionality an expected feature.

In the short term, a 5% growth in the PC market is expected in Q4 2023, fueled by a robust showing during the holiday season and an improving macroeconomic environment.

Ishan Dutt, principal analyst at Canalys, highlighted that the commercial segment is positioned for a demand surge in 2024, with 47% of partners polled in November anticipating growth of 10% or more in their Windows PC shipments next year. Small and medium businesses (SMBs), which faced budget constraints in PC procurement over the past several quarters, present a robust opportunity for growth.

Dutt also noted the anticipated proliferation of Arm-based PCs in 2024, largely driven by Qualcomm's X Elite chip. While initial uptake may be restrained, especially in commercial settings, the ability to deliver improvements in power efficiency and battery life is expected to make Arm-based PCs an attractive offering for customers.